A Memo to Sens. Obama and Biden

NOTE TO READERS: This post is meant to be addressed to the Democratic Ticket, sort of as a means of catharsis for me after watching them flounder the past two weeks:

The time for a clean campaign has past. Sen. McCain threw his clean campaign pledge out the door the second he hired Steve Schmidt to take over the day to day operations of the campaign. Every gaffe Sen. McCain or Gov. Palin makes needs to be broadcast all over. You need to call them liars and then say what they are lying about. Explain that she completely supported the bridge to nowhere until Congress killed the idea. Only then was she against it—hell, supporting the damn bridge was one the major planks of her platform when she ran for governor. Ask how someone who was raised by his grandparents and a single mother on food stamps can be called an elitist by someone who has nine homes and his running mate who had a tanning bed installed in the governor’s mansion. Why are the words “Beltway Johnny” not being uttered every time you talk about “Change?” Why won’t you point out that Sarah Palin doesn't know what the Bush Doctrine is instead of leaving it to the media to do your bidding? If I were you I would fire your entire campaign staff and beg on hand an knee that James Carville and Paul Begala run your campaign. Please, please, please, take Jon Stewart’s advice and simply, “SHIT ON THEM WITHOUT REGARD!!!!!” They don’t respect you, so don’t respect them. And by the way, for every campaign stop that Sarah Palin makes with John McCain, you need to make one with Hillary Clinton. And for every snide comment she makes about community organizing, Joe Biden needs to make a comment about Wasilla having the worst crystal meth problem per capita in the country or a crack that just about everyone in her administration graduated high school with her. Finally, call both of them liars about you’re tax plan and point out the fact that even Fox News and Karl Rove have admitted they are lying about this. Then tell the American people that you want to do to lower taxes for the lower, middle, and even upper-middle class. Also, will you PLEASE run footage or audio of the Kennedy’s saying that you are the closest thing to Jack (that’s JFK’s personal name for those who are confused) and Bobby Kennedy since they were assassinated—Ethel, Teddy, and Caroline (Matriarch, Patriarch, and Matriarch-in-waiting) have all said you are their natural political successor! Finally put the picture of John McCain awkwardly hugging George W. Bush in every damn add you run (print or tape). That thing needs to be as familiar to people as the picture of a young Bill Clinton shaking JFK’s hand was in 1992 and 1996.

And two more things, for Sen. Biden. One: Why did you fuck up your answer on abortion so badly? You gave the perfect answer: You are pro-life and as a Catholic that is your choice and your opinion but you do not think you should impose your belief on others. Likewise you don’t think others' beliefs should be imposed on you and so you don’t support legalized partial birth abortions or government funding for abortions. Why did you have to try and play theologian at the end of your answer. You’re a senator and law professor not a theologian. Secondly: Don’t worry about being called mean or sexist in your debate. Dick Cheney by all accounts won the VP debate in 2004 and he was the meanest son of a bitch he could be.

I think I've seen this one before

Many who know me know that I am a huge West Wing fan and have seen every episode of the show several times. That being said, it’s not surprising that I often see things in the actual news that remind me of a plotline from the show; and I’m sure I’m not the first person to make this observation, but this year’s election cycle is eerily similar to the election cycle that was portrayed in the last two seasons of the West Wing. So here is a list of similarities between the show’s election and this year’s real-life election:

Democratic Primary Candidates:
The West Wing: Party heavy weight and current Vice President Bob Russell had a huge lead going into the primaries; former Vice President John Hoynes was seen as a major contender early on; Junior Congressman Matt Santos is a young, minority candidate whose upstart campaign relied heavily on his message of Change and grassroots efforts amongst young voters
2008: Party elder Hillary Clinton was seen as the front runner going into the primaries; former Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards was seen as a major contender; Barack Obama is a young, minority candidate whose campaign is based on a message of change and whose lead in national polls is largely due to support amongst young voters

Republican Primary Candidates:
The West Wing: Longtime, western Senator Arnold Vinick campaigned on his moderate viewpoints and maverick tendencies; the last major candidate to withdraw was the darling of the evangelical right and minister
2008: Longtime, western Senator John McCain has campaigned on his moderate viewpoints and calls himself the original maverick; the last major candidate to withdraw was Gov. Mike Huckabee whose support came largely from evangelicals and

Democratic Primary Results:
The West Wing: Going into the primary there is no presumptive nominee however after a fourth candidate enters the race on the convention floor Santos delivers an electric speech that unites the party behind him as the nominee; Hoynes was practically a non player in the party by the time of the convention due to a sex scandal
2008: The primary fight lasted until the last primary though it was settled before the convention, some Clinton supporters were hoping she would not concede and would attempt a floor fight for the nomination; John Edwards was a non-player at the convention due to a sex scandal

Democratic Vice-Presidential Selection:
The West Wing: Plagued by accusations of being inexperienced and having weak foreign policy credentials, Santos picked party elder, Leo McGarry, to be his running mate; McGarry came from blue-collar Catholic roots and made it as a major political player in Washington, his career almost ended when he suffered a near fatal heart attack earlier in the show
2008: Plagued by accusations of being inexperienced and having weak foreign policy credentials, Obama picked party elder, Joe Biden, to be his running mate; Biden came from blue-collar Catholic roots and made it as a major political player in Washington, his career almost ended when he suffered a near fatal brain aneurism in 1988

Republican Vice-Presidential Selection:
The West Wing: After he is unable to get the evangelical base of the party excited over his candidacy, Vinick chose a relatively unknown and inexperienced small state governor, Ray Sullivan of West Virginia.
2008: After he is unable to get the evangelical base of the party excited over his candidacy, Vinick chose a relatively unknown and inexperienced small state governor, Sarah Palin of Alaska.

And the winner is.....

Like most people I am getting a little annoyed that neither candidate has selected a running-mate yet and I am getting a little tired of trying to guess who each will pick. (Although, I will let you know that as much as I would love to see Tim Kaine as Obama's running mate, it looks like he won't be the choice due to Mark Warner's speaking spot at the convention. In fact, its looking more and more like it will be Joe Biden, especially with his trip to Georgia--the country not the state--to evalutate the situation over the weekend.)

Candidate speculation aside, I've decided to play a new game and try to guess when the candidates will announce their running mates. According to an email sent from the Obama campaign to supporters, it is fair to assume that the selection will be made before the convention and not at the convention. With that in mind, Obama has to compete with the Olympics for press coverage, something that will be immensely easier this week now that Michael Phelps has finished his races and the gymnastics team and all-around competitions are done. That being said, based off of the Olympic TV schedule, my guess is that Obama's decision will come Tuesday. Yes, it is the same night as coverage of the last of the gymnastics individual apparatus finals but any other night and he would risk competing with coverage of any number of team finals that are likely to feature American teams (Beach Volleyball, Indoor Volleyball, Women's Soccer, Basketball, etc.) and several track and field events that highlight promising American talent. As far as McCain's pick goes, he has to navigate Olympic coverage as well as the Democratic convention. This makes guessing his time-frame a little more tricky. My guess is that it will come on one of three days. He will announce on Tuesday (which if Obama announces on that day as well could be disasterous for both camps as far as press coverage is concerned), on the first of the Democratic Convention to try and steal some of the press coverage away from the Democrats (Monday is really the only night that this could work as the other nights are too top heavy with significant Democratic speakers), or on the Friday after the Democratic convention in order to try and control press coverage after Obama's acceptance speech on Thursday night (that day will also be McCain's 72nd birthday and could help deflect attention from the fact that his turning 72).

Veepstakes

With every other political blogger out there commenting on the “Veepstakes” I figured I might as well do the same. And like most, I’m going to focus my energy on the Democratic side because McCain really only needs to fulfill three criteria to give him a boost in the polls and make sure the evangelical vote actually votes. He needs to pick someone under the age of 55 who is a devout Christian with little to no affiliation to the Bush administration. That will help allay the fears of those who think he is too old or too much in the front pocket of Bush and Cheney and will make sure that the Christian Right can get excited about his ticket rather than stay home on Election Day. Obama’s predicament is a little more complicated. While most of the worries that people associate with McCain are cosmetic and can begin to be fixed with a quick photo-op the day he announces his running-mate, the fears that many undecideds have about Obama need to be allayed by the prior experience of his running-mate and his (or her) performance in the VP debate.

There are eight names that have been mentioned the most throughout this process but really only three are getting much media coverage now that we are only three weeks out from the Democratic nominating convention. So right away let me cross off five names and give a brief reason why they won’t get the nod: Hillary Clinton (too polarizing to be a VP candidate), Kathleen Sebelius (doesn’t do any harm but doesn’t bring enough to the ticket), Chris Dodd (too dull), John Edwards (he lost four years ago as a VP candidate and did not do well in the debate), and Bill Richardson (there are rumors and regardless of whether or not they are true the last thing the Democrats need in a close election cycle is another ‘zipper-gate’). With those four names gone it leaves three serious contenders for the Democratic Vice Presidential spot: Sen. Evan Bayh, Gov. Tim Kaine, and Sen. Joe Biden. There are a few factors that Obama has to consider: party unity, his lack of foreign policy experience, his lack of executive experience (however, it is something McCain will have trouble attacking as he lacks it as well), what states will the VP selection help swing towards his favor, and how compatible his VP selection is with his ideas and policies.

Party unity is something that Obama has tried to address ever since Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign in early June. He has done a decent job on this front and really the only way he would be able to sway those who voted for Hillary but now support McCain back from the GOP would be to put Hillary on the ticket and that just won’t happen. Some argue that putting an early Hillary supporter like Bayh on the ticket would further his cause of party unity but it is not likely a lightweight like Bayh will be able to pull disenfranchised Hillary supporters back to Obama. Tim Kaine would help alleviate the fears of many moderate and conservative Democrats as he is fairly conservative for a Democrat on social issues like abortion. Biden could do the same as both men have publicly stated a personal opposition to abortion but politically support a woman’s right choose.

Obama’s lack of foreign policy experience is perhaps what is getting the most attention right now due to his recent trip to the Middle East and Europe. Biden clearly offers the most in this category as a result of his thirty-six years of experience on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. However, there is a fear in the Obama camp that Biden would overshadow the top of the ticket in this area and only highlight Obama’s inexperience rather than fill the void (this is likely why Biden, who publicly expressed interest in participating, was not invited to attend Obama’s recent overseas trip). Bayh also offers some experience in this area as a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee but nothing compared to Biden. Kaine has no substantive foreign policy experience to speak of outside the time spent as a Jesuit Volunteer in Honduras during Law School.

Obama’s lack of executive experience is something that is not as vital for him to cover in and VP selection as McCain lacks the same experience. In this category, Biden would not help—he was practically born in a legislative committee meeting (to steal a line from The West Wing, Season 7 Ep. 2). In this case, the conventional wisdom choice is Bayh who served two full terms as Indiana’s governor. He can bring more executive experience to the ticket than the other two. While Kaine also has executive experience, he has much less than Bayh as he is only three years into his first term as governor and his four years as lieutenant governor will not get much play in the press as substantive executive experience.

Thirty years ago there was only one thing a candidate considered when choosing a running mate: how best to create a geographical balance on the ticket that would help swing states in his favor that he would not have won otherwise. For example, John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson could not stand each other, yet Kennedy being from New England needed someone to help him in the South and West. Of late, however this has not been much of a concern on the winning tickets. Bill Clinton (of Arkansas) chose Al Gore (of Tennessee) and George W. Bush (of Texas) chose Dick Cheney (technically of Wyoming but in reality he is a Texan and changed his residence to be on the ticket). However, with the potential of this year’s Electoral Map being turned upside down as Obama mobilizes the African-American vote and puts the South into play for the first time since Johnson was president, the home-state of one’s VP selection could be crucial. For Obama, all three candidates can help him in some fashion. Bayh will most certainly deliver Indiana and perhaps carry some of that momentum into the ever crucial state of Ohio. But Indiana has only 11 electoral votes and Obama, though only slightly, has led in the state fairly consistently. Kaine would obviously help Obama not only in Virginia (13 electoral votes) but could help in other Southern states as a moderate, Southern Democrat. Biden’s help is less obvious as Obama is almost guaranteed to carry Biden’s home state of Delaware and its measly 3 electoral votes. However, as a northern, Catholic Democrat he could help Obama enormously in Pennsylvania as well as with northern, blue collar voters everywhere, a group which Obama lost to Clinton miserably in the primary season.

The last factor that Obama has to consider is whether his selected VP would continue, for the most part, the policies he set in place—an easier way of putting this is will the guy down the hall from you be on your side of the battlefield or the other guy’s. In this case, Bayh finishes last since he backed the other candidate in the primary. Biden finishes somewhere in the middle as he was running against Obama for a short while; however he threw his support and money behind Obama pretty early on into the primary season. Plus, Obama can’t really count on Biden to always back him up as Biden is a bit of a wild card and has made several gaffes in several campaigns and has no problem speaking his mind. Kaine wins by far in this category. Though is a moderate Democrat who is (or was) close allies with Joe Lieberman (who is stumping across the country for McCain) he is a strong advocate of “changing” how Washington works and carries no baggage of being a Washington insider like the others.

So who do I think Obama should pick you ask? Well to be honest, I keep going back and forth on this one. I do not think it should be Bayh, he doesn’t have the name recognition that Obama needs on his ticket. Obama needs to make sure that he does not completely overshadow his VP so any benefit the VP might bring to the ticket would be dwarfed. That leaves Kaine and Biden. Kaine has been staunch supporter of Obama since he announced his candidacy; Biden has both charisma and experience. However, I fill like this election cycle its going to come down to who will give Obama the most electoral help. Sadly, the South is unlikely to vote for a Democratic ticket that boasts both an African-American and a Catholic (both Kaine and Biden are practicing Catholics). So the help that Kaine could potentially bring in the South is thrown out. Kaine can help Obama win Virginia but Biden can help Obama in Pennsylvania and Ohio as a northern Catholic with foreign policy experience (both are states that Obama lost to Clinton mainly because he lost the blue-collar white vote). That all being said, I think Kaine makes the better choice. Simply because he helps with three of the five factors I just discussed: he has executive experience, he can help deliver Virginia (as well as possibly help with some of the northern, blue collar, Catholic voters that Biden might deliver), and he is more or less from same mold as Obama as a reformer and Washington outsider.

(Plus, Biden would be an AMAZING Secretary of State!)