Veepstakes

With every other political blogger out there commenting on the “Veepstakes” I figured I might as well do the same. And like most, I’m going to focus my energy on the Democratic side because McCain really only needs to fulfill three criteria to give him a boost in the polls and make sure the evangelical vote actually votes. He needs to pick someone under the age of 55 who is a devout Christian with little to no affiliation to the Bush administration. That will help allay the fears of those who think he is too old or too much in the front pocket of Bush and Cheney and will make sure that the Christian Right can get excited about his ticket rather than stay home on Election Day. Obama’s predicament is a little more complicated. While most of the worries that people associate with McCain are cosmetic and can begin to be fixed with a quick photo-op the day he announces his running-mate, the fears that many undecideds have about Obama need to be allayed by the prior experience of his running-mate and his (or her) performance in the VP debate.

There are eight names that have been mentioned the most throughout this process but really only three are getting much media coverage now that we are only three weeks out from the Democratic nominating convention. So right away let me cross off five names and give a brief reason why they won’t get the nod: Hillary Clinton (too polarizing to be a VP candidate), Kathleen Sebelius (doesn’t do any harm but doesn’t bring enough to the ticket), Chris Dodd (too dull), John Edwards (he lost four years ago as a VP candidate and did not do well in the debate), and Bill Richardson (there are rumors and regardless of whether or not they are true the last thing the Democrats need in a close election cycle is another ‘zipper-gate’). With those four names gone it leaves three serious contenders for the Democratic Vice Presidential spot: Sen. Evan Bayh, Gov. Tim Kaine, and Sen. Joe Biden. There are a few factors that Obama has to consider: party unity, his lack of foreign policy experience, his lack of executive experience (however, it is something McCain will have trouble attacking as he lacks it as well), what states will the VP selection help swing towards his favor, and how compatible his VP selection is with his ideas and policies.

Party unity is something that Obama has tried to address ever since Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign in early June. He has done a decent job on this front and really the only way he would be able to sway those who voted for Hillary but now support McCain back from the GOP would be to put Hillary on the ticket and that just won’t happen. Some argue that putting an early Hillary supporter like Bayh on the ticket would further his cause of party unity but it is not likely a lightweight like Bayh will be able to pull disenfranchised Hillary supporters back to Obama. Tim Kaine would help alleviate the fears of many moderate and conservative Democrats as he is fairly conservative for a Democrat on social issues like abortion. Biden could do the same as both men have publicly stated a personal opposition to abortion but politically support a woman’s right choose.

Obama’s lack of foreign policy experience is perhaps what is getting the most attention right now due to his recent trip to the Middle East and Europe. Biden clearly offers the most in this category as a result of his thirty-six years of experience on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. However, there is a fear in the Obama camp that Biden would overshadow the top of the ticket in this area and only highlight Obama’s inexperience rather than fill the void (this is likely why Biden, who publicly expressed interest in participating, was not invited to attend Obama’s recent overseas trip). Bayh also offers some experience in this area as a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee but nothing compared to Biden. Kaine has no substantive foreign policy experience to speak of outside the time spent as a Jesuit Volunteer in Honduras during Law School.

Obama’s lack of executive experience is something that is not as vital for him to cover in and VP selection as McCain lacks the same experience. In this category, Biden would not help—he was practically born in a legislative committee meeting (to steal a line from The West Wing, Season 7 Ep. 2). In this case, the conventional wisdom choice is Bayh who served two full terms as Indiana’s governor. He can bring more executive experience to the ticket than the other two. While Kaine also has executive experience, he has much less than Bayh as he is only three years into his first term as governor and his four years as lieutenant governor will not get much play in the press as substantive executive experience.

Thirty years ago there was only one thing a candidate considered when choosing a running mate: how best to create a geographical balance on the ticket that would help swing states in his favor that he would not have won otherwise. For example, John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson could not stand each other, yet Kennedy being from New England needed someone to help him in the South and West. Of late, however this has not been much of a concern on the winning tickets. Bill Clinton (of Arkansas) chose Al Gore (of Tennessee) and George W. Bush (of Texas) chose Dick Cheney (technically of Wyoming but in reality he is a Texan and changed his residence to be on the ticket). However, with the potential of this year’s Electoral Map being turned upside down as Obama mobilizes the African-American vote and puts the South into play for the first time since Johnson was president, the home-state of one’s VP selection could be crucial. For Obama, all three candidates can help him in some fashion. Bayh will most certainly deliver Indiana and perhaps carry some of that momentum into the ever crucial state of Ohio. But Indiana has only 11 electoral votes and Obama, though only slightly, has led in the state fairly consistently. Kaine would obviously help Obama not only in Virginia (13 electoral votes) but could help in other Southern states as a moderate, Southern Democrat. Biden’s help is less obvious as Obama is almost guaranteed to carry Biden’s home state of Delaware and its measly 3 electoral votes. However, as a northern, Catholic Democrat he could help Obama enormously in Pennsylvania as well as with northern, blue collar voters everywhere, a group which Obama lost to Clinton miserably in the primary season.

The last factor that Obama has to consider is whether his selected VP would continue, for the most part, the policies he set in place—an easier way of putting this is will the guy down the hall from you be on your side of the battlefield or the other guy’s. In this case, Bayh finishes last since he backed the other candidate in the primary. Biden finishes somewhere in the middle as he was running against Obama for a short while; however he threw his support and money behind Obama pretty early on into the primary season. Plus, Obama can’t really count on Biden to always back him up as Biden is a bit of a wild card and has made several gaffes in several campaigns and has no problem speaking his mind. Kaine wins by far in this category. Though is a moderate Democrat who is (or was) close allies with Joe Lieberman (who is stumping across the country for McCain) he is a strong advocate of “changing” how Washington works and carries no baggage of being a Washington insider like the others.

So who do I think Obama should pick you ask? Well to be honest, I keep going back and forth on this one. I do not think it should be Bayh, he doesn’t have the name recognition that Obama needs on his ticket. Obama needs to make sure that he does not completely overshadow his VP so any benefit the VP might bring to the ticket would be dwarfed. That leaves Kaine and Biden. Kaine has been staunch supporter of Obama since he announced his candidacy; Biden has both charisma and experience. However, I fill like this election cycle its going to come down to who will give Obama the most electoral help. Sadly, the South is unlikely to vote for a Democratic ticket that boasts both an African-American and a Catholic (both Kaine and Biden are practicing Catholics). So the help that Kaine could potentially bring in the South is thrown out. Kaine can help Obama win Virginia but Biden can help Obama in Pennsylvania and Ohio as a northern Catholic with foreign policy experience (both are states that Obama lost to Clinton mainly because he lost the blue-collar white vote). That all being said, I think Kaine makes the better choice. Simply because he helps with three of the five factors I just discussed: he has executive experience, he can help deliver Virginia (as well as possibly help with some of the northern, blue collar, Catholic voters that Biden might deliver), and he is more or less from same mold as Obama as a reformer and Washington outsider.

(Plus, Biden would be an AMAZING Secretary of State!)